2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook

As we move toward 2026, Canadians continue to watch the housing market with equal parts hope and caution. The past year brought a mix of lower home prices, softer sales, and a lingering pause from many buyers who are waiting for economic stability. Yet, beneath that slower pace, we are beginning to see early signs of renewed confidence.

The latest TRREB data gives us a valuable window into what may be ahead. Let’s explore the key trends shaping the outlook for 2026.

A Market Still Slow, But With a Shift in Tone

In November 2025, GTA home sales dropped 15.8% compared to the previous year, with 5,010 transactions recorded. New listings also fell 4% to 11,134. This shows a market where both buyers and sellers were cautious, waiting for clearer signals from the broader economy.

nr_market_watch_1125

Prices softened as well.

• The average selling price declined 6.4% year-over-year to $1,039,458.

• The MLS® Home Price Index showed a 5.8% annual decline, reflecting broad price easing across most housing types.

  nr_market_watch_1125

While these numbers may feel discouraging, the month-to-month trend tells a different story: prices in November stayed close to October levels. That stability often signals that a market is finding its footing.

Why Many Buyers Pressed Pause in 2025

Even with lower borrowing costs and more favourable prices, many households held back. The TRREB report points to one key reason:
Confidence in long-term employment.

Encouragingly, the economic data from late 2025 showed stronger-than-expected gains in jobs and growth. TRREB notes that if this momentum continues, confidence should rise—and with it, purchasing activity.

nr_market_watch_1125

For young couples and families considering a move, this growing sense of stability may be the signal they have been waiting for.

Why 2026 Could Bring a Turning Point

The outlook for 2026 carries a more optimistic tone. Here are the main drivers:

1. Renewed Consumer Confidence

Positive employment news is essential. TRREB’s leadership highlights that more stable job prospects could unlock significant pent-up demand. Many households want to buy—but they need to feel secure first.

nr_market_watch_1125

2. Well-Supplied Inventory—For Now

Buyers continue to benefit from adequate resale supply. This provides welcome breathing room, especially after years of intense competition. But this balance may shift. TRREB warns that once current inventory is absorbed, new construction must fill the pipeline to prevent a future shortage.

nr_market_watch_1125

3. A Push for More Housing Options

One of the most important insights in the report is the call for more diverse housing. The gap between condo apartments and traditional single-family homes needs attention. Young families often want more space but remain priced out of detached homes. Multiplexes, townhomes, and mid-density projects may become essential solutions.

nr_market_watch_1125

4. Support From All Levels of Government

TRREB continues to stress the need for stronger incentives and housing policies that support meaningful construction. These will be key if we want a healthy and balanced market in 2026 and beyond.

nr_market_watch_1125

What This Means for Buyers in 2026

For young professionals and growing families, 2026 may offer an opportunity to move with greater confidence.

• Prices remain more approachable than in past peak years.

• Inventory is still healthy in many segments.

• Economic indicators are improving.

If momentum continues, we could see increased activity in the spring and a shift back to a more balanced, stable market.

What This Means for Sellers

While prices softened in 2025, the pace of decline is easing. A stable economic outlook and returning demand could support a steadier pricing environment in 2026. Homes that are well-prepared and positioned—especially those offering family-friendly layouts—may perform better as buyers re-engage.

Final Thoughts

The Canadian housing market in 2026 will likely be shaped by one word: confidence.
As the economy strengthens, so will the willingness of households to take the next step in their housing journey.

For many, this year may open the door to long-awaited moves—bigger spaces for growing families, first homes for young couples, and lifestyle changes that support new goals.

📢 Thinking about buying or selling in 2026? Let’s connect and discuss your real estate goals!

#GTARealEstate #MarketUpdate #TorontoHousing #HousingTrends #BuyingIn2025 #SellingIn2025 #RealEstateInvesting